Section 10 Uncertainty

In this section, we bring in some statistical concepts of uncertainty in data analysis.

Throughout the course, we have come up with estimates:

• Are perceived black job applicants less likely to receive call backs for interviews than applicants perceived as white?
• Are job applicants with criminal records less likely to receive call backs for interviews than applicants without criminal records?
• Are higher levels of education associated with lower levels of tolerance toward domestic violence? Do wind turbines cause backlash in voting behavior?

Each time, we come up with a positive or negative number to summarize the effect. But when should we consider it a reliable effect or big effect? By what criteria? That’s where we are going now.