7.1 Prediction Overview

Our goal: Predict (estimate/guess) some unknown using information we have as accurately and precisely as possible

• Prediction could involve estimating a numeric outcome. Alternatively, prediction also involves classification– predicting a categorical outcome (e.g., prediction of who wins vs. who loses).

Some political science examples of this might include

1. Categorizing comments on social media as being toxic/nasty/uncivil

Wired

2. Detecting Fake news and misinformation

PBS

3. Forecasting election results

Other examples

• Trying to detect hate speech online
• Predicting where or when an attack might occur
• Trying to classify a large amount of text into subject or topic categories for analysis

What other types of things might we try to predict or classify in political science?